Since that primary's inception in 1980, the highest percentage of votes for the winning candidate has never been lower than 45 percent. That is, until John Sidney McCain III's extremely poor showing.
ailing to get more than a third of the vote in a "win" that was only 3.3 percentage points higher than the second-place finisher — all in a primary election whose date, for the first time ever, blatantly violated national-party rules, resulting in the state party being penalized with a loss of half its total allotted delegates — is unprecedented:
Both John Sidney McCain III's extremely poor showing and that direct violation, which set the South Carolina Republican Primary's date at not the traditional three days but well over two weeks before Super Tuesday (the furthest separation ever in history between the two), have forever jinxed this primary's capability of predicting the party's presidential nominee.
|Year (Date) ||Candidate|| % |
|1980 (Mar. 8)||Ronald Reagan||54.7|
|George H.W. Bush||14.8|
|1988 (Mar. 5)||George H.W. Bush||48.5|
|1992 (Mar. 7)||George H.W. Bush||66.9|
|1996 (Mar. 2)||Robert Dole||45.1|
|2000 (Feb. 19)||George W. Bush||53.4|
|John Sidney McCain III||41.9|
|2008 (Jan. 19)||John Sidney McCain III||33.2|
Moreover, every candidate who won after previously losing this primary always did so with a higher percentage of votes than he got the last time. That is, until John Sidney McCain III's extremely poor showing:
As opposed to George H.W. Bush's 14.8% in 1980 then 48.5% in 1988 (+33.7 points) or Robert Dole's 20.6% in 1988 then 45.1% in 1996 (+24.5 points), John Sidney McCain III's 41.9% in 2000 then 33.2% in 2008 (-8.7 points) is more than an extremely poor second showing. It's in fact the worst ever; an unprecedentedly negative "recovery win" from prior loss for any returning candidate.
Given that Florida, from which "national party officials have decided to count only half of the delegates... as a penalty for holding its primary earlier than allowed" (with no Demoqrat ones being counted for the same reason), has also chosen to vastly diminish its traditional influence in the nomination process, and given that only 21 delegates are up for grabs in Maine's Republican Caucus February 1-3, the only presidential primaries that matter now are the ones on, and perhaps after the extremely unprecedented
Super Tsunami Tuesday.
Labels: They Campaign We Decide '08, Unabashed Sellouts of America, Where's the Fence?
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